Warmer Air Means Thunderstorm Risk for Midwest, Southern States

After all this cold weather this season, a brief warm up is coming starting tomorrow, Thursday, February 20th and Friday the 21st. Much of the northern states have a deep snow cover, and although temperatures are supposed to rise into the low 40's and mid 50's in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, not a whole lot of snow will melt.  Same goes for Albany, New York, where temperatures will be around 40 degrees tomorrow and in the mid 40's for Friday. There is not predicted to be much of a snow melt because this warm up is not going to last long, as cooler weather comes back on Sunday where in Albany temperatures will be in the low to mid 30's.  It has been some time since we've seen temperatures in the 40's, so although a two to three day event, most residents will surely take it.  A sign that March is almost here and spring type weather is close behind.

As far as the midwest and southern states, a sure sign of spring is arriving. A severe weather outbreak is expected starting on Thursday and lasting into Friday. Cities such as Cincinnati, Ohio and Nashville, Tennessee are in line for heavy rain, strong winds, and thunderstorms. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

According to Severe Weather Expert Henry Margusity of AccuWeather.com, "The greatest risk for a handful of tornadoes will be where the air is the warmest and most humid, which is most likely from western Tennessee to northwestern Mississippi on Thursday."

Below is an image courtesy of AccuWeather which shows where the heaviest and highest risk of severe weather will be.

Winter Storm in Southern States; Potentially in the Northeast

Between Tuesday, February 11th and Thursday, February 13th, a winter storm is likely to cause widespread wintry conditions from Dallas, Texas across to Charlotte, North Carolina.

This is just after a winter storm caused damage in the south two weeks ago. Many residents of Atlanta, Georgia abandoned their cars on highways, staying overnight in stores, while students spent the night in school buses. Atlanta only received 2 to 3 inches of snow, but since they don't receive wintry precipitation very often, residents were caught off guard and didn't know how to react once it started snowing. Salt and plow trucks were not prepared and roads became slippery for motorists. Forecasters didn't call for snow or ice in Atlanta, so it's understandable why residents weren't ready for a round of wintry weather.

Will Atlanta be ready for round two? This time around there has already been more notice about this winter storm, called Winter Storm Pax by The Weather Channel. Forecasters are predicting significant icing for the Atlanta area. Other cities in this icing zone include Dallas, TX, Shreveport, LA, Birmingham, AL, and Charlotte, NC. It appears that the heavier icing will occur in a stripe from Atlanta to Charlotte, where a quarter to three-quarters of an inch of icing could occur. It wouldn't be surprising if some localized areas receive one inch of ice. This much icing could cause prolonged power outages. Below is an image from AccuWeather about this upcoming winter storm.

As far as our area goes, there is some question as to whether or not this storm will come up the Atlantic coast and give upstate New York a big snowstorm.  For now, forecasters will continue to monitor the latest computer models and more of a consensus will come for the middle of the week. The time frame for a potential storm would be Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. It looks like a 50% chance as of right now.

Lake-effect snow in Oswego, NY

Both photos were taken by me at SUNY Oswego in 2007

My first year of college was at SUNY Oswego on the shoreline of Lake Ontario.  Oswego, NY is known for its harsh cold and wind and enormous amounts of snow.  Oswego gets what is called lake enhancement, or lake effect-snow.  Lake-effect snow can produce very large totals of snow over a relatively short amount of time, or over a few days when totals can exceed one to two feet.  Oswego is located in a location where a snow band often sets up over the town.  When I was at Oswego I remembered many days of heavy snowfall and high snow totals, resulting in the campus being closed and classes being cancelled.  One lake-effect snowstorm left snow drifts as high as the roofs of cars.  Snow coated the sides of buildings and blanketed roads.

Lake-effect snowstorms can be an impressive event.  One thing is for sure, I will never forget the weather in Oswego, NY.  Compared to the snowstorms we get in eastern upstate NY, the storms in Oswego are more intense and produce more snow.  It is not uncommon for Oswego and surrounding towns to receive upwards of three to four feet plus.

Sometimes these lake-effect storms are called lake-effect blizzards, when strong winds can accompany lake-effect snows creating blizzard-like conditions.